QUESTION OF THE WEEK

JANUARY 6, 2008

 

QUESTION - Give me four images your remember from this season.  They don't have to be the "biggest" or "most important" images.  Just four things that, for whatever reason, you distinctly remember.

 

 

S

 

1) app st blocked field goal - there are a handful of memorable snapshot moments that resonate deeply with cfb fans: flutie's hail mary, cal and the stanford band, and more recently prothro's catch on the back of the defender. these are the kind of plays that are instantly recognizable and remain in fans' memories for years. for cfb fans, another such snapshot moment was added to the list when app st blocked a potential game-winning field by michigan and ran the ball down the field as time expired. the play capped one of the most unnforgettable upsets in cfb history and had all the utter surprise and pandamonium of flutie or cal/stanford.

 

2) ark vs bama - mcfadden churned out yard after yard, especially in the 2nd half when he essentially dominated the entire tide defense while blowing off huge chunks of yards every carry. but in the final minutes, sitting on the bench with a mild concussion, the hogs could not earn a 1st down and bama scored the game-winning td with just seconds remaining. the bama crowd erupted as it was the 1st time bama had one a come-from-behind game since pre-shula. after the game, i thought mcfadden was the easy frontrunner for the heisman.

 

it's easier to remember it because i was there.

 

3) lsu's fake field goal - this play was everything that's great about cfb. the #1 team in a dogfight. at night in the sec. big name coaches. unexpected, momentum-changing play. 90,000 people (plus 100 players and coaches) smiling and having fun.

 

4) mcfadden losing the heisman - for the 2nd consecutive year mcfadden finished 2nd in the heisman voting. what was certainly a "just glad to be here" attitude in 2006 had become a "i want to win this thing" attitude in 2007. he had more ammunition (stats and notoriety) and less competition (no clear-cut favorite) than the previous year. i don't think anyone in cfb was more heisman-worthy than dmac this year. and by the look of frustration and disappointment on his face after the ceremony, i think he'd agree with me.

 

 

I

 

1.  lsu's fake fg versus south carolina.  just when you think you've seen it all in football this play is something completely foreign to myself.  from the perfect placement of the no-look over the shoulder flip right in stride to the beffudled expression of spurrier afterwards the play was as unique as i've seen in a long time.
 
2.  gundy's rant.  his "i'm 40.  i'm a man." rant was both ridiculous and entertaining.  of all the amusing pressers of our lifetime (mora, hawkins, edwards) this takes the cake.  for the record, this will haunt and define gundy for his career. 
 
3.  osu's roughing the punter versus lsu.  this play not only finished the buckeyes chances, but it also was the most obvious exhibit that the almighty and stoic jim tressel lead buckeyes are hardly prepared for the big stage.  a team that has always won with discipline and crisp play showed they were rattled and unprepared to redeem themselves.  the next personal foul, only a couple plays later, was icing on the cake.
 
4.  lc's post game smile versus florida.  the true feel good story for um fans.  carr was ready to go.  the timing was right.  but seeing the old man go out with such a feel good win and watching some of the recent demeanos leave his resume was beyond fitting.  we miss him already and this will take a lot of the sting of the recent failures.  the florida win won't define carr, but it will help the manner in which he is remembered. 

 

DECEMBER 30, 2007

 

QUESTION - there's always unrest with the bcs because many cfb fans feel the bcs never gets it right: should lsu have been #2? did hawaii deserve to be invited? was kansas the right pick over mizzou? should the rose bowl have selected illinois? considering these 4 examples, discuss whether or not the 2007 bcs got it right.

 

 

S

 

for the record, i'm a bcs fan. the thought of a playoff does not excite me.

 

lsu at #2 - along with lsu, oklahoma and georgia had the strongest resumes for the #2 spot. lsu got the nod in voter's minds because they had the most talent, won the toughest conference, did not lose "in regulation", and because espn analysts said lsu should get the nod. my only complaint with lsu at #2 is that during the previous week voters had georgia ranked well ahead of lsu. during any other week of the season, georgia would have moved to #2 and lsu to 5 or 6. but for the final rankings, lsu jumped 5 spots (and over 3 very good teams in ou and uga) with a ho-hum win over tennessee. if the rankings matter every other week, then they ought to matter even more during the final week.

 

kansas at large - kansas did not deserve this bid as much as missouri did. mizzou beat kansas head-to-head (quite convincingly) and only lost to oklahoma (albeit twice). mizzou was also ranked higher in the bcs. the bcs should not make a habit of rewarding teams like kansas who play nobodies to pad their record. however, kansas was not undeserving and played exceptionally well in the upset win over vatech in the orange bowl.

 

hawaii at large - hawaii deserved this bid. of course, i realize that someone had to invite hawaii according to bcs by-laws but hawaii belonged anyway. azst was the only team with a complaint and the devils won most of their games against the bottom-half of the p10 and couple of cupcakes. generally i don't like non-bcs schools playing in the bcs. but this year there was not an obvious replacement for hawaii. however, hawaii should have been made to play kansas so vtech and uga could have played.

 

illinois at large - illinois deserved this bid. illinois had a strong season, beat the #1 team, and were the most intriguing of the available teams. again, the only competition for this spot came from azst and illinois had the better resume. also, i have no issue with the rose bowl wanting to preserve the b10/p10 matchup when possible. there will be years when the rose bowl will feature uninteresting teams (see washington/purdue in 2000), but the tradition is an important feature of this game.

 

so, did the 2007 bcs get it right? almost. mizzou has a gripe, but the tigers also had 2 chances to beat oklahoma and answer any doubts - they lost twice.

 

 

I

 

as you pointed out there are several different examples to look at in analyzing the effectiveness of the bcs.  while addressing those examples, i will state the bcs almost got it right.


1.  did illinois deserve a bid to the rose bowl?  in short, yes.  the illini cleary were not one of the best 10 teams in cfb, but who else should the rose bowl have selected?  the sec already had two representatives.  mizzou was out since ku and ou got in.  i simply don't see a viable candidate to replace illinois.  plus, the rose bowl (and b10 and p10) have long attempted to protect the purity of the rose bowl by pitting two teams from the b10 and p10.  this logic, whether or not outsiders agree, has long been in place.  it does not need to be altered simply because teams from other conferences want a more consistent chance to play in the rose.
 
2.  did hawaii deserve the bid?  yes.  after watching hawaii get mauled by uga it was clear they would have been a 5th place team in the acc this year.  they simply were not that good.  but that needed to be confirmed.  if a non-bcs team runs the table unscathed history shows (utah) that they belong.  these examples should be dealt with on a case by case basis, but hawaii did all they could.  now, they don't belong in the title game, but i am not opposed or in favor of a blanket policy allowing them in or not in.  and, again, under the guidelines of the bcs who would have been the more appropriate fit? 
 
3.  are lsu-ohio state the two most deserving teams?  yes, but by a whisker.  ohio state certainly deserved the bid.  in this year a one loss team of any major conference with a winning pedigree (sorry, kansas) should have deserved the invite.  i'll defend lsu because their two losses were to bowl teams in overtime.  sure, ku and arkansas weren't world beaters, but they were respectable teams.  uga, a close second in my book, got throttled by tennessee and barely beat vandy.  and, while i don't hold it against them for not winning their division, i do give lsu bonus points for the sec title game win over tennessee.  usc was simply overhyped and still are.  ok, they throttled illinois while playing in their backyard.  surprised?  me neither.  looking at usc's entire body of work it falls considerably short of uga and lsu.  plus, losing at home to stanford should be all we need to know.  i give way more credit to uga than usc, but feel lsu was the best selection.
 
4.  mizzou got jobbed, but in a way the b12 asked for it.  mizzou essentially got penalized for beating kansas.  had they lost they likely would have ended up in the orange bowl.  conference title games are massive money makers, but they are also risky business.  by collecting the dough you open the door for a grave inustice to your conference members, but this is nothing new.  mizzou was better than kansas and deserved the bid.  but, again, seeing a team plummet in their bowl status due to a loss in the conference title game is nothing new.
 
i may sound like a broken record, but i am ok with how the bcs played out.  does kansas getting in over mizzou really bother me?  nope.  would i really care if uga was in the nc game over lsu?  nope again.  i love the 12 week season leading up to the bcs and would not trade it for a fancier and more exciting postseason.  the bcs is far from perfect and involves a lot of politics and prejudices.  and i am fine with it.  it gives us something to talk about.  and lastly, if uga, usc, or mizzou are pissed they had chances to put themselves in a better position.  take care of business on saturday and the bsc will take care of you.

 

DECEMBER 23, 2007

 

QUESTION - Name the three most powerful men in college football.  These can be anyone related to CFB (players, media, etc).

 

 

S

 

when i think powerful i think influential. so, here are the 3 most influential people in college football (not necessarily in order).

1) mike slive, sec commissioner - slive oversees the best conference in cfb with the most rabid fans, the most high-profile coaches, and the most revenue-generating football programs. slive is also the coordinator of the bcs (a system created by former sec commish roy kramer) and sits on the letter of intent committee. slive is involved in every significant decision that affects college football and is the primary decision-maker in the conference that is setting the standard in cfb.


2) pete carroll, usc head coach - carroll set the modern standard for a dominant cfb program. his trojans played for 3 nc's and won 3 hesimans over a 5 yr span. he can get the best players, controls a huge tv market, his sideline guest list reads like a hollywood party. most importanly, he put nfl coaches on the map for being hot college commodities (rather than the other way around).

 
3) kirk herbstreit, espn analyst - herbie has an enormous influence on the opinions of 1000's of college football fans. he can manipulate under-informed heisman voters, lazy pollsters, and someday may get every college football fan in the country to demand a d-1 playoff. but, because the fans opinions don't impact the presidents decisions herbie's influence will always have a visible ceiling.

hm - jim delaney (b10 commish), miles brand (ncaa president)

 

 

I

 

3.  Jim Delaney:  There is little doubt that the fans and media will continue to plead for an overhaul of the current CFB postseason.  Network television can arrange and propose anything they would like and it still will not be their decision.  Instead the answer will utlimately and exclusively come down from the university presidents and subsequently the respective commissioners of each conference.   There is no more powerful and influential conference in college athletics than the Big Ten.  And there is no more high-profile commissioner than Jim Delaney.  Any revamping-big or small-to the present system will flow through all of the commissioner's offices and Delaney will again be at the front of this discussion with incredible clout on any decision. 
 
2.  Tim Tebow: Tebow is in a situation to potentially leave CFB as the most visible and accomplished CFB player of our lifetime.  He could easily leave CFB with multiple Heisman Trophies and National Championships.  While those accomplishments are certainly still to determined, they are not far-fetched.  Florida is knocking on USC's door as the most hyped and desired program in CFB and Tebow's next two years will determine their future fate.  He is as true of a "Golden Boy" as this sport has ever seen with more than half his career remaining (I bet he stays 4 years).  His lasting impact on CFB could be much larger and significant than many realize.
 
1.  Kirk Herbstreit: Despite Fox owning most of the BSC,  despite the SEC's contract with CBS, and obviously despite Notre Dame's floundering NBC contract the lifeline of CFB runs through ESPN.  College Gameday has a cult-following and caters to the exact audience that makes CFB unique.  Given that there is no more respected, knowledgable, and known CFB media figure than Kirk Herbstreit.  Perhaps this is because ESPN has surrounded him with a group of laughers in May, Donnan, and even Corso.  Regardless, he is the afforementioned authority on CFB and when he speaks not only do people listen but often they believe.  His power and influence on CFB is witnessed weekly and his opinion shapes the views of millions of fans.

 

DECEMBER 16, 2007

 

QUESTION - our teams (arkansas and michigan) hired 2 new coaches this week (something that probably won't happen again in our lifetimes). so the question is simple, what do you think about your new coach?

 

 

S

 

despite the length of the search process (3 weeks), the number of public rejections (tuberville, bowden, grobe, butch davis, etc.), the manner in which it ended (a 10:30 pm presser carried live on espn with hog fans woo-pigging), and the raping that arkansas and the new head hog received from almost every conceivable media outlet, i can honestly say that i'm satisfied with the hiring of bobby petrino.

 

i make no promises about what petrino will do at arkansas or that he'll even do it for very long. he made an early exit from atlanta (but personally, i'm more bothered by his departure from lville) which has to make you question his longterm committment to the hogs. and winning in the sec is not easy.

 

the sec west alone is positively lethal with 4 coaches who've coached in bcs bowls. to win, petrino will have to outcoach good coaches on fall saturday's and outrecruit good recruiters every other day of the year.

 

i don't doubt his x's and o's - he built a deadly offense at lville and was a head coach in the nfl. but i don't know about his recruiting. while the hogs are the main attraction in arkansas  (after wal-mart), the state doesn't produce enough sec-caliber talent alone to sustain a top 15 program - unlike alabama and louisiana.  so petrino will have to recruit the southeast and texas, something he's never had to do (though he has recruited florida).

 

but, i'm not satisfied with his hiring because he's certain to win or because he's certain to stay. i'm satisfied with his hiring because he's certain to be a good coach that's not houston nutt. there are 2 parts to that:

 

1) arkansas got a bigtime coach. while espn jerkoffs poked fun at the hogs and said the normal garbage "hire a coordinator" and "know who you are", arkansas went out and hired a bigtime coach. the arkansas brass didn't panic when they heard "no" from other candidates, didn't second-guess the status of the job, didn't compromise their initial criteria. instead, the arkansas brass went out and hired a bigtime coach. i was satisfied because arkansas, at least for one evening, acted like a bigtime program and hired a bigtime coach.

 

2) the nutt era is over. anyone with a pulse knew it needed to be over. the text-message scandal, the mustain saga, the demotion of malzahn, the fans ordering flyover banners, the questioanble coaching, etc. consider that darren mcfadden won back-to-back doak walker awards and twice finished 2nd in the heisman race and he was often an afterthought on messageboards that were burning with stories about nutt's antics. nutt distracted and polarized the entire state and i'm satisfied that the attention can now return to the on-field hogs rather than the off-field hog.

 

whether petrino can win at arkansas and whether he stays at arkansas remain to be seen, but for now i'm satisfied that he's here.

 

there's also an interesting aside. it takes a unique man to be the head coach at arkansas. someone who can yell woo-pig-sooie with genuine pride (and not with embarassment or while smirking). someone who can travel with billionairres 15 minutes from campus (hello mr. walton, mr. tyson, and mr. hunt) and shake hands with cotton farmers 5 hours across the state. someone who can handle backwoods local media on a daily basis but only occassional, passing interest from national media. and someone who believes deep down that arkansas can win championships (whether or not that actually happens).

 

whether he can do these also remains to be seen.

 

 

I

 

The recent hiring of Rich Rodriguez has consumed my thoughts this week.  While most media outlets and the UM faithful have praised the hire as a "home run" I have taken a slower approach to this development.  I will undoubtedly give Coach Rod the benefit of the doubt and will begin his tenure as a supporter.  However, I cannot express my opinion of the hire any better than stating, "I'm nervous."


I want to jump aboard the bandwagon, but instead am merely dipping my toe in the water at this time.  To me there are simply too many questions that remain unanswered....


1.  By bringing in the spread option and failing to retain most, and potentially all, of Carr's assistants, UM has gutted their present operation.  While the program needed fresh ideas, I think an overhaul of UM's present approach was unnecessary.  It needed tweaking not complete revamping.


2.  This reminds me a bit of Nebraska.  UM just sold their image and past in one swoop.  If it works nobody will care.  It will be regarded as being progressive and joining the 21st century of CFB.  If it does not work it will result in utter carnage at this highest level.  This hire is very risky.  Had Ferentz, Schiano or Miles failed the failure would not have been as visibly pronounced and painful.


3.  He is the anti-Carr.  Many love this.  My gut is that a guy who quotes cartoons at his opening presser, calls the UM-OSU game "one of the bigger rivalries in college sports" (i wanted slightly more emphasis on this), has consistently recruited JUCO's, sports white tennis shoes on the sidelines along with white cleats on his team (I'll kill him if this happens), and has been occassionally spotted wearing the full length wind suit on the sidelines (picture a high school track coach) might be viewed slightly less than stoic by the arrogant UM faithful.

 
4.  Recruiting and Ryan Mallett.  I am very excited about the thought of Terrelle Prior sporting the UM uniform.  But it might not happen.  Ryan Mallet, if he is smart, is likely thinking about hitting the road (welcome to Arkansas).  Imagine now if UM does not land Prior and Mallett does transfer. 

 

That is a death sentence for next year.

 
5.  Is the spread option really here to stay?  This is what Rod knows.  It is what he does best.  I don't doubt that CFB is headed towards a prolonged time of mobile qb's and spreading the field.  But what if I am wrong.  What if I hate watching this flukey system every week?  I like the pro-style offense.  It works for USC.  It gives a team plenty of options and attracks better recruits due to the translation to the NFL.  I may end up liking it and our offense may improve greatly under it.  But until that happens I am skeptical.
 
In the end there is one thing Rodriguez must accomplish in the next two months.  This one thing will take UM's present optimism towards the hire and turn it rightfully into an all-out frenzy.  Land Terrelle Prior.  By getting Prior Rodriguez accomplishes three things:  1.  He wins an early and awfully important battle versus Ohio State in recruiting.  2.  Shows everyone given the name value of Michigan he will be a much improved recruiter. 3.  Implement a signature piece to this new offense.  The thought of Prior as our QB in this system makes the entire deal much easier to accept and anticipate. 

 

DECEMBER 9, 2007

 

QUESTION - make a cfb confession that you have been hiding for a while.

 

 

S

 

as is often true, this confession isn't so much to you as it is for me. and, quite frankly, until recently i didn't even know it needed to be made.

 

as long as i can remember i've been a michigan fan.

 

jamie morris was my absolute favorite player. i loved him so much that i made joe morris (the former syracuse standout, ny giants superbowl winner, and jamie's older brother) my 2nd favorite player just because they were related.

 

i can still remember flipping through sports illustrated and seeing a full page picture of tony boles (i remember what the picture looked like - boles in midstride).

 

even in elementary school in arkansas i could spell schembechler without blinking.

 

i used to run and dive onto our couch in south carolina pretending to be desmond catching a fade pass in the endzone.

 

to this day, part of my disdain for nebraska comes directly from the kicked ball in the mizzou/nebraska game in '97 that led to an undeserved split national title.

 

in short, my college football identity has always included michigan. heck, for a while my identity was michigan.

 

so it's been hard to realize, and even harder to admit, that michigan isn't part of my college football identity anymore: i'm a michigan fan, but not a michigan man.

 

it began when i started school at arkansas. i became an arkansas fan and, over time, an sec fan. the first time i realized that my michigan identity was seriously being threatened was during the '99 citrus bowl (arkansas vs michigan). you and i watched that game together and i openly rooted or arkansas in your basement. at the time i rationalized it as the standard "i root for michigan unless they're playing arkansas".

 

but that wasn't it.

 

as our sec/b10 debate intensified over the years so did my love for arkansas and the sec and my admonishment for the b10. and while i tried desperately to separate michigan from the b10, it was always hard to do. working at alabama and becoming a crimson tide fan only made it harder.

 

though my michigan identity has been in question for some time (as you can attest), it's only been the last week or so that the full meaning has set in. until now i hadn't considered or admitted that it was gone. but your email last week created an undercurrent and this week's question (conveniently) brought things to the surface.

 

but it wasn't just your email, there was one other thing too.

 

last year, when rich rodriguez was set to become the new alabama coach i was unsettled and unhappy. i had followed the situation intently from the moment shula lost to miss st and i did not want rodriguez at alabama. i didn't want him at alabama because i thought alabama was better than "coach rod". i joyfully screamed at the tv when he backed out at the last moment.

 

this year, when rich rodriguez was set to become the new michigan coach i was infinitely less interested.

 

it was like a scientific experiment had been conducted with my college football identity. all the variables perfectly controlled - the same coach, the same timeline, the same drama. the two conditions of the experiment were nearly identical and the outcome was obvious:

 

the biggest event in michigan football in 10 years and i was like a casual observer, an outsider curious about what was happening.

 

 

I

 

in the past year or so both of us have made a few big strides in the world of sports.  we've come to an "understanding" that pleases us both in the epic A-Rod v. Jeter debate.  I have confessed that the sec is the better cfb conference than the b10.  you lobbed back a genuine admission that michigan-ohio state game is the biggest rivalry.  it was a progressive last calendar year.  well, i am about to add to that confession list.  and while the confession may not rival the "sec does indeed rule" confession, it is on the same tier.  it is a big admission.


for starters, i must acknowledge my appreciation for your calm demeanor during these coaching searches.  your optimistic and calculated approach towards arkansas was needed.  it has helped calm me down and force me to look at the end result and past history more than the process.  but, it has forced me to a few difficult truths that i can no longer ignore and must confront.  Highest on that list is that I feel like Notre Dame. 
 
Back in 2005 there was a classic moment that all old-money traditional cfb powers needed to recognize.   it was the time when nd lost urban meyer to florida.  the irish thought two things:  1.  Because they were "Notre Dame" Urban Meyer was automatically interested.  2.  they could take the old-fashioned approach (meaning politeness, medium paying contract, and expected mutual interest) and got burned badly. florida had him all but locked up before notre dame could even make a sales pitch.  at that time it was too late.  meyer was sold on the passionate fan base, high contract, and frenzied atmosphere of florida over stale notre dame.  it should have served as a wake-up call to schools in ann arbor, happy valley, lincoln and other campuses:  Big name value based on tradition is nice, but you've overrated it.  In short, there are new rules and a changing image in cfb.  either jump on board or get eaten by the sharks.
 
Here is the admission......


the sec is not only the best cfb conference, but it is dictating the image, atmosphere, rules, and level of college football.  if you are in the sec you are safe, but anyone but usc outside of it must prove themselves.   

let that sink in.

 
there, i said it.  i can no longer run from the realities of michigan football.   they need to shed their conservative and ultra-safe past and pay attention to what is happening elsewhere.  they have appeared as though they learned nothing from the notre dame coaching fiasco.  simply being michigan and offering 2.5 million a year at a snail's pace with total regard to courtesy simply does not work anymore.  and bill martin seems clueless.  the point is not that um has whiffed thus far.  the point is that michigan is no closer to the realities of cfb since the florida state debacle over 15 years ago.    their process and vision is so dated.  they may end up with a fine coach.  let's hope so.  but they don't seem willing or aware of what it takes today to win in cfb.  the sec is showing the path and michigan needs to realize that and alter their ways.

 

DECEMBER 2, 2007

 

QUESTION - mcfadden, tebow, daniel, and brennan were all invited to nyc for the heisman ceremony. who deserves the heisman? 

 

 

S

 

the definition of the heisman is fluid, it changes with every voter. some will vote for the best player, period. some will vote for the best offensive player. some will vote for the best skill position player. some will vote for the best player on the best team. some will vote for the most valuable player. some will vote for the player with the best stats. some will vote for the player with the most recognizable name. and on and on.

 

personally, i'll use prom-king style criteria and vote for the player with the coolest car. the winner then, as everyone knows, would be darren mcfadden - in a runaway (in case you have doubts, see below).

 

http://www.withleather.com/post.phtml?pk=3393

 

with my vote would be the requirement that mcfadden drive to the front door of the downtown athletic club in this car on saturday afternoon in nyc and get out in a white tux, white hat, and white shoes. he should then toss the keys (with a huge gold #5 for a key ring) to the valet and say something so awesome that i coudn't possibly know what it would be.

 

darren mcfadden is just that cool (he's also  this cool):

 

http://www.withleather.com/post.phtml?pk=4245

 

and it's not just me, mcfadden would win prom king at every college across the country - even over everyone's hero, pretty-boy tim tebow. sure tebow already has the golden smile, and a girlfriend who has 2 heisman's hiding under her shirt (in case you have doubts, see below), on his resume.

 

http://www.withleather.com/post.phtml?pk=1894

 

while those are cool, ebow is still no mcfadden.

 

of course, the heisman is not simply a coolness award. it's reserved exclusviely for dominant cfb players and mcfadden is that, too. he runs, passes, catches, pitches, blocks, tackles, and returns. he's a frekaish specimen and a 100% pure football player.

 

mcfadden is in the conversation with herschel and bo for the best rb in the history of the sec. he holds the record for the most yards ever gained by an sec back (321 vs scar this year) - and neither herschel nor bo shared the backfield with another 1000 yard rusher and neither had to overcome a non-existent passing game. mcfadden also has more yards from scrimmage than any other back in sec history.

 

sec greats are in a league of their own. mcfadden belongs in that league. tebow doesn't.

 

tebow and brennan certainly deserve heisman consideration for putting up increadible numbers and daniel deserves respect for rewriting mizzou history.

 

but mcafadden deserves the heisman for being a better football player than everyone else.

 

 

I

 

The Heisman Trophy has evolved into a rather anti-climatic presentation in which the result seems alreay known.  I am sure Tebow will win the award tonight and I am guessing history does not serve him well.  A few past examples as to why Darren McFadden deserves the award....
 
The best player on the best team:  History has not treated Gino Torretta kindly.  Sure, he was the signal caller on best team until that best team got slammed by Alabama in humiliating fashion.  Torretta went on to have a nearly non-existent NFL career and is maligned still today for winning the Heisman.
 
This eliminates.......Chris Wells.  Not sure OSU is the best team, but LSU has nobody worth mentioning outside of Glenn Dorsey.
 
The Best Stat Guy:  History has also been very hard on Andre Ware.  His gaudy numbers at Houston were huge news during his 89' run only to leave early for the NFL and later salvage some respect from his porous and brief NFL career to get an analyst gig on ESPN. 
 
This eliminates......Colt Brennan.  I am going to laugh when an NFL team burns a 2nd round pick on this kid and their fans get excited.   
 
The Surprise Nobody Saw Coming:  Remember Rashan Salaam?  The same Rashan Salaam who did not even lead his team in rushing the year before winning the 1994 Heisman.  Salaam and CU arrived out of nowhere in 1994 and really have not returned since.  Salaam developed a nasty marijuana addiction as a member of the NFL's Chicago Bears and was out of the league lickety split.
 
This eliminates......Chase Daniel.  Sorry Chase, great story but this is bigger than you and Missouri.  Maybe we'll cross paths some day in Grand Rapids when you are playing for our Arena team.
 
The Stud:  Has there been a studlier Heisman winner than Bo Jackson?  While Bo will always be remembered fondly it will be more for his freakish athleticism than his play in the NFL.  A degenerative hip and a poor Raiders team never allowed Bo to flourish past Auburn.
 
This eliminates.....Tim Tebow.  Good looks, a high profile program, and 2 yard TD runs are nice.  But I need more. 
 
The Best Player:  No matter what Barry Sanders ever does or doesn't do again in his life he will always be respected as a football player.  It did not matter that OKST was mediocre.  It did not matter that Sanders was humble, soft-spoken, and shunned the spotlight.  He was the best player and that is all that mattered.
 
This nominates......Darren McFadden.  Look, Tebow is talented and certainly deserving of a close look.  Brennan and Daniel should be thankful for getting the invite.  But McFadden is the best pure player.  It is obvious and the voters need to recognize that.  Put McFadden on Florida's team and two things happen:  1.  McFadden wins in a landslide 2.  Tebow is at home right now.

 

NOVEMBER 25, 2007

 

QUESTION - What will be the four biggest storylines of CFB on January 9th? 

 

 

S

 

2007 was the best season ever

 

it started opening weekend with a historic upset and ended with the #1 and #2 teams losing on the last day of the season. in the weeks between, it was utter chaos.

 

#2

 

regardless of the outcome in the title game, the conversation that started saturday night about who should be #2 will continue for years.

 

there are plenty of candidates:

 

a) georgia - ranked #4 in the polls prior to the final weekend and winners of 6 straight.

b) kansas - only 1-loss team in the discussion from a bcs school.

c) vtech - 2-loss acc champ and a late game collapse against bc away from just 1-loss

d) lsu - 2-loss sec champ with both losses in 3-ots and beat vtech by 40.

e) usc - 2-loss p10 champ.

f) oklahoma - 2-loss b12 champ.

 

for me, it's georgia. if the same events that transpired this weekend had transpired on any other weekend the dawgs would have moved into the #2 spot in the polls with zero discussion. that should be even more true (and not less true) on the weekend that determines the bcs title game.

 

death to the bcs

 

the playoff dorks will use this season (like every other season) to boo-hoo about the bcs. there seems to be the mentality that if there's any uncertainty then it's clear a playoff is needed. i'm of the opposite mindset, i say if there's any uncertainty then it's clear there's a bcs needed. everyone believes that ohio st is #1, few would argue that now. the question is who, from a list of about half a dozen teams, is #2.

 

well, that is exactly what the bcs is designed to determine. kansas with 1 loss but a weak schedule? georgia who didn't win the sec over lsu who did? the bcs ensures 2 things: 1) that people will still be talking about the #2 team decades from now (especially in kansas, and since the jayhawks would likely get their doors blown off if they actually played in the game it's best that the fans will be able to complain about not playing in it and live with the disillusion that they might have won) and 2) that the season matters. it matters that usc lost to stanford. it matters that kansas didn't beat a ranked team. it matters that georgia didn't win the conference.

 

mcfadden wins the heisman

 

yes, tim tebow and kevin smith amassed incredible numbers and yes chase daniel did too AND took mizzou to unprecedented heights. but, as should be the case, the best player wins the heisman, and not the best numbers. mcfadden wins it over everyone else for the same reason that woodson won it everyone else: he's better.

 

the end of the season controversy is how tebow (who had more rushing tds) and smith (who had more rushing yards than anyone, ever), may have deserved it more.

 

get ready for the term "mc-heisman".

 

 

I

 

1.  the bcs.  this is a boring yet predictable answer.  the bcs gets talked about every year at the end of the season.  this will be different as we are likely (hopefully) about to crown a two loss team that lost at home late in the season to an unranked team as the national champions.  while i remain a bcs supporter,
this year is the most ammunition the playoff proponents will have.  it'll be a tiring and endless story that results in exacty no change. 
 
2.  florida.  with much glamor and hype the gators are inching towards usc status even without paralleled success.  they will be loaded next season and fresh off a win over michigan with a heisman trophy winner returning and arguably the most high profile coach in the game.  the 2008 preseason #1 will be florida and they'll be annointed the day after lsu-osu.
 
3.  the disappointments.  michigan, nebraska, penn state, alabama and florida state all were supposed to do better .....again....this past season and did not.  these legendary programs are entering a crossroads in the storied traditions.  some will prevail and others won't.  all face uncertain futures for various reasons.  their future will be an underlying, but powerful, topic as the conclusion of the season.
 
4.  the latest coaching move.  i think we're going to see a shocking coaching move none of us expect.  maybe pete carroll to the nfl.  maybe joe pa or bowden retire finally.  maybe michigan lands a bigger name than we expect.  anyway, something big and unexpected will happen in the cfb coaching ranks and the aftershock will nearly eclipse the on the field storylines.

NOVEMBER 18, 2007

 

QUESTION - list your top 3 candidates for the michigan job. include your rationale for each candidate and any positives and negatives about the candidates.

 

 

S

 

while these may not be the most popular (or even the most likely) candidates, they are the candidates i'd like to see high on the list.

 

1) dennis green - green is considered one of the top minds in the game and has ties to the midwest and a history in the b10 (played at iowa and coached at nwu). it's been widely speculated that he would return to the college game in 2008.

 

green would keep a pro-style offense in aa whihc means he would be attractive to the typical michigan recruit - eventual pro-prospects. though i don;t know for sure, green seems to be respected in the coaching communnity and seems to coach with integrity. however, green also has some much needed fire - see last year's "the bears are who we thought they were" comments. michigan fans desperately need a spark to awaken the program and re-energize the fan base. green would be able to put together a 1st-class staff (see former assts tony dungy and brian billick).

 

and this is crucial: green has the added advantage of being a black man with a national reputation who coached in the nfl. personally, i think that all 3 characteristics are major selling points on the recruiting trail - and the next michigan coach has to have outstanding recruiting success.

 

my only concern with green is that he's been out of the college game for 20 yrs and he might not fully understand teenagers, graduation rates, etc.

 

but i would gladly take that risk because college football will someday have a dominant black coach who changes history and green has a chance to be that kind of coach.

 

2) paul johnson - johnson is a winner. and he wins on a grand scale.

 

he returned ga southern to dynasty status in the late 90's when he won 2 1-aa national titles, 5 conference titles, and never won fewer than 10 games in just 5 seasons. he then returned navy to respectability by managing  4 consecutive bowls, 35 wins in 4 years (the most since 1905-08), and the naval academy's 1st victory over notre dame in 40+ years.

 

johnson coaches, and wins, with integrity and class. he's a dynamic offensive mind whose teams dominate opponents by running the ball with toughness.

 

johnson is underspoken so he wouldn't be an exciting choice for the fan base. and he'd have to prove that he could recruit on a national level. but, he easily meets all the criteria for a michigan head coach, he would honor um's tradition, and there is no doubt in my mind that he would win big in aa.

 

ps - in 1999, johnson's georgia southern team beat tressel's youngstown st team by 35 points to claim the 1-aa national title.

 

3) norm chow - chow is a lifetime assistant who's offenses have been among the most progressive, explosive, and overwhelming in cfb for 35 years. he's tutored 4 heisman winners and numerous elite college and pro qbs (lienart, palmer, mcmahon, rivers, detmer, young, sarkisian, etc.). he's even-tempered, respected, and respectful as a coach but projects an obvious, straightforward confidence.

 

and though michigan's offense has not traditionally been an issue, hiring chow would ensure 2 things: 1) that michigan would have a better offense than ohio st would have a defense, and 2) that chow would hire someone to exclusively run the defense (much like stoops did for spurrier).

 

there would certainly be some concerns with chow as head coach: no head coaching experience, no power running game that is typical of b10 teams, especially michigan, and no defenseive background. but those may not be fatal.

 

35 yrs with elite cfb head coaches (lavell edwards and pete carroll) gives him more coaching experience, and a more established reputation, than just about anyone on the list of candidates. and he's been in the nfl. reggie bush and lendale white managed ok in chow's most recent cfb offenses. and, as already stated he could hire th best dc in the country and just stay out his way.

 

 

 

I

 

This list is as of right now.  Subject to change drastically over the coming weeks...
 
1.  Les Miles:  The obvious front-runner at this point.  Holds the integral characteristic in that he played football for Michigan and coached in A2 as well.  Wife has ties to the area and Miles has steadfastly not denied interest.  All signs point to him being very interested.
 
Pro:  For me, the most appealing trait Miles provides is the combination of energy, attitude, and swagger.  He is a confident man who wears his emotions on his sleeve and fields a team loaded with cockiness and aggression.  These are traits UM has sorely lacked the last decade and the presence of Miles would inject a much needed dose of spunk to this program.  Plus, he would embrace the position and likely stay for a long time.  Miles is a "Michigan Man" who would likely be content in A2 for the rest of his career.
 
Con:  There are plenty.  Does he really know X's and O's.  For all the fire he brings to the table I have a nagging suspicion Miles could not out-scheme most coaches.  There is wide speculation that Carr and his assistants are not supporters of Les Miles as well.  The well-documented claim that Miles left Michigan on bad terms has persisted years before this moment.  Also, is Miles the morally sound individual we hope he is?  Can we trust "Loose Morals" to run a clean and ethical program?  Lastly, his present success at LSU is appealing, but how much of it can Miles be credited for?  Many believe he is simply driving the car Saban put gas into.

  
2.  Kirk Ferentz:  Quietly, as the Miles to Michigan media blitz as chugged along, Ferentz has emerged as the next in line candidate.  Many speculate that Carr is a huge supporter of his and the hiring of Ferentz would ensure another year of Michigan empoyment for LC's assistants.  The Mary Sue Coleman (Iowa's Prez prior to coming to UM) is a bonus feature and that he already has the support by UM's final approval; Coleman.


Pro:  Ferentz, perhaps better than any coach in the country, embodies the class and dignity UM professes to desire in this hire.  He is a sound and respected teacher of the game and a man both parents and fans can trust to run a clean program.


Con:  What have you done for me lately?  The biggest issue with a Ferentz hire is that no Michigan fan wants him.  His program has been underwhelming and stale lately.  UM fans want a shot of energy with this hire and Ferentz offers none of that.  He is Lloyd Carr minus 20 years.  A nice guy who we all respect, but he has lost the "mastermind" tag the minute Drew Tate revealed he really was not very good.  Martin has stated that connections to the University of Michigan is not required, but Ferentz's lack connections to U of M and the state should (hopefully) be another shot against this hire.


3.  Brian Kelly:  The latest hot up and comer to the college ranks.  Kelly's days in southern Ohio are numbered.  It is simply a matter of when and where.  He has had immediate success everywhere he has went.  The CMU program was downtrodden and in shambles when he arrived.  Three years later it won the MAC title.  He took a sleeping giant at Cincy and immediately made it a looming giant.  His credentials speak for themselves thus far.
 
Pro:  Kelly knows Michigan and he would be affordable.  While UM won't pay Sabanesque money, they have stated that $$ will not be an obstacle.  However, Kelly would come for under 2 million a year and the negotiations would seem to be easy.  The fans would accept the hire and his more modern playbook that would accompany him.  Kelly will stay in the midwest, and if you UM passes they'll likely face Kelly soon on an annual basis.  They pass now and they might be reminded frequently of what they passed on.


Con:  Too risky.  How is he different than Dan Hawkins or Steve Kragthorpe?  Martin showed with his basketball hire that he likes experienced, respectful coaches who are stable.  That is not Kelly and Martin will continue to learn from the failed Amaker hire; hire on results not expected results.  I believe in Brian Kelly and think he is a coming giant in the profession.  But I fully understand why Michigan will rightfully pass on his glamorous potential.  Too much at stake to hire a guy that was coaching D2 football five years ago.

 

NOVEMBER 11, 2007

 

QUESTION - The next few weeks are big for both of us.  Our teams (Alabama and Michigan) play hated rivals that have recently controlled the series.  These games inject a present and steady dose of anxiety coupled with impatience.  As a 33 year old man this the closest feeling I have to being a 5 year old on X-mas eve.  In short, these are great weeks unlike any other throught the rest of year.

 

Therefore, get inside my head.  I'll get inside yours.  What are you thinking about this game?  Are you confident?  Perhaps scared?  Nervous?  Are you bracing yourself for how to handle the aftermath if you lose?  I'll move past the steely disposition you present and unveil what you really are thinking.  You do the same for me.

 

 

S

 

the michigan/osu game is not played in isolation. any thoughts surfacing this week about this weekend's game started long ago. this week's thoughts didn't happen all at once. instead they happened gradually, over time and across many situations. anyone who wants to understand lucas' thoughts today, has to understand his thoughts yesterday. lucas' psyche was not constructed over night.

 

yesterday:

 

michigan and osu have played just about every year for the past century. during that time the 2 have become bitter rivals in what is rightly considered the best rivalry in sports. the series has always been competitive, but michigan has maintained a comfortable edge in overall wins. this only added to michigan's already elite status in cfb. even during the pinnacle of the hayes era in the '70's, osu's best years, michigan was able to split the series. when current coach carr took over for then coach schembechler in the '90's he promptly won 8 of 11 in the series. this was impressive considering that osu was in the national title hunt almost every year during that time. carr even managed  two things schembechler did not - a national title and a heisman winner.

 

at that time michigan was a premier program in cfb with tradition, class, and some modern relevance and hardware. if you grew up a michigan fan during this era, as lucas did, you had never experienced a losing season (you rarely even saw more than 2 losses in a whole season) and had flat-out owned your rival.

 

the lopsided series under carr's direction eventually cost osu coach john cooper his job, even though cooper's '95 and '96 teams entered the michigan games undefeated with a shot at the national title. cooper and osu lost both games. at that time, even 4-loss michigan teams were beating osu's title contenders.

 

this was a great time to be a michigan fan.

 

in cooper's place osu hired a relatively unknown jim tressel (not jon gruden, but jim tressel). however, what initially appeared to be a marginal hire would quickly appeared to be the undoing of michigan football. under tressel, osu began eroding michigan's stronghold on the series, michigan's stature in the cfb world, michigan's pipeline to talent, and the very sanity and confidence of the michigan fan base - lucas included.

 

it started immediately. in his first address to the student body tressel promised a victory over michigan in ann arbor. 1 year later a 5-loss osu team made good on that promise. 1 year after that osu dismissed michigan again on the way to a national title. in 2 short years tressel had exorcised every demon that cooper had created in the osu fan base. some would even say he sent them 200 miles north. michigan fans were so stunned  by the swift reversal of fortunes that only now, in 2007, is the seriousness and urgency of falling further and further behind osu finally really setting in.

 

tressel has now beaten michigan 5 times in 6 years and his teams have been a serious player in the national title conversation in 1/2 of those years.

 

today:

 

but 2007 was supposed to be michigan's year. michigan was 11-2 in 2006, returned seniors at key positions, had a favorable schedule, and had osu coming to ann arbor. during the preseason there were even whispers of national title. meanwhile osu was supposed to limp into the season after a humiliating loss in the national title game and losing a heisman winning qb.

 

this was the year for michigan to prove that the last few years were a mere anomoly, a slight correction in the overall series to account for the cooper years, and to prove that it wasn't losing ground to osu.

 

so it isn't hard to imagine lucas' thoughts this week as a 10-1, highly ranked osu team comes to ann arbor to play a 3-loss michigan team.

 

he's thinking, "what's going on? why is osu having the year michigan was supposed to have?"

 

so naturally, with questions like this, lucas is nervous. he's a little nervous about the game itself: that henne won't play, that hart won't be 100%, that carr will get outcoached, etc. but he's a lot more nervous about the bigger implications: the evidence that the osu program is head and shoulders above the michigan program - even when michigan has a sr qb and rb and even when the game is played in ann arbor.

 

in this case a loss versus osu means more to lucas than a win versus osu. a win means relief - maybe these 2 program aren't really all that far apart. but a loss means it impossible to ignore just how different these 2 programs have become.

 

lucas is already thinking that osu has the season that michigan was supposed to have.

 

but perhaps more seriously, lucas is thinking that a loss this week indicates that osu has the program, and the place in cfb, that michigan was supposed to have.

 

 

I

 

Timeline:  Monday, November 19th, 3:03 pm


Setting:  Psychologist's Office


Shrink:  "Welcome, Jason.  How are you feeling today?"
 
You:  "Unsure.  A mixture of feelings."


Shrink:  What is your most prevalent feeling, Jason?
 
You:  I am feeling pessimistic.  Maybe doubtful?  I want to feel energetic and pumped up, but all I can think about is 2005.  I am have night terrors of JP Wilson getting sacked countless times against Auburn this weekend and us losing......again.  It sucks.  I've seen this before.  A solid Auburn defense.  A flakey Bama offense.  Sigh...........(long pause)............I cannot help but think we are screwed this weekend.  Not sure I can take it anymore.

 
Shrink:  Do you have an outlet for these feelings of frustration.  These feelings of self-doubt? 
 
You:  That's the thing, Doc.  Normally I can tune into Paul Finnebaum or read the local paper for my cfb fix.  But if we lose this weekend even my outlet will be gone.  I cannot tune into Finnebaum and listen to a bunch of trailer park, overall-wearing, redasses from Auburn ramble on about their dominance of Alabama.  I cannot pick up the paper and read about cfb because the paper will be plastered with crap about auburn beating us.......again.  I am just beginning to think that if the game goes bad the aftermath in the media will be even worse.  I won't be able to enjoy CFB even.  Not sure I'll be able to leave my safe-haven of T-town even.  I feel like I am slowly losing control.

 
Shrink:  So you're feeling pessimistic about the game and pissed off over what is likely to follow the game?  Hmm.  Can you focus on your family instead?  Maybe work?  Something to relieve the pent-up looming frustration you envision coming?
 
You:  Well..this is confidential, right?


Shrink (nodding in approval):  Completely.


You:  Sometimes I'll hook up my SEGA and play the computer.  I am Chicago and the computer is Tampa Bay.  I pretend like my buddy Inman is Tampa and I am just kicking his ass.  It helps....but only temporarily.  I escape to fantasy world.  Other than that nothing can distract me during Auburn week.  Last year I almost wished we didn't play Auburn anymore.  I love the anticipation and hate the result.

 
Shrink:  Jason, this is not healthy.  Is there anything else I need to know about?  You've got me worried.


You:  Well, I do have a trump card in my pocket.  The ultimate defense mechanism that cannot be penetrated.  The motherload of all defense mechanisms that will allow me to function just fine if we lose.  In a way, as frustrating as Saturday might be, there is no need to worry.


Shrink:  What, Jason?  What is it?  Explain this "trump card" you speak of.


You:  Well, how do I say this politely? ....(hesitation)........ No matter what happens on Saturday I'll leave an Alabama fan.  And they'll still be Auburn fans.  They could win the next 10 games.  They could shut us out Saturday and the next 5 years.....and guess what?  We're still better than they are.  We still claim countless more memories, national titles, and historical relevance.  And they're still Auburn. 

 

I'll be fine. 

NOVEMBER 4, 2007

 

QUESTION - lsu, oregon, oklahoma, and kansas are all vying for the #2 ranking in the bcs. give a reason why each of them should get. give a reason why each of them should not.

 

 

S

 

kansas

 

the jayhawks are 1 of 2 undefeated bcs teams (#1 ohio st being the other). everyone else in this discussion has 1 loss. that alone should earn a top 2 bid this late in the season. the only thing limiting kansas' is an unconvincing schedule which will include only 1 ranked team when the season ends.

 

oklahoma

 

occasionally, the sooners have actually looked the part. they thumped miami and beat texas and mizzou in back to back weeks. during those games oklahoma looked worthy of an nc bid. but those wins were bookended by a head-scratching loss (colorado) and a dangerously close win (iowa st) versus to 2 bad teams. neither of which made ou look like the # 2 team in the country.

 

oregon

 

the ducks resume is essentially identical to the sooners, except that the ducks have a slightly better loss (to cal). the michigan, usc, and azst wins could ultimately be against top 10 teams. and they have a heisman candidate. those could be the best 3 wins of any 1-loss team when the season ends. the problem for this team is the defense. giving up 27 to houston, 31 to stanford, and 34 to washington leaves critics wondering how the ducks could ever beat a team they couldn't outscore.

 

lsu

 

lsu is 5-1 against ranked teams with the lone loss to a top-20 team on the road in 3 ot's. the consensus is that the tigers have the most talent in cfb. and while that doesn't win games, it does win pollsters. they can win games late with defense (see alabama), with offense (see auburn), and with coaching (see florida). the knock on lsu is that the differential on the scoreboard rarely reflects the differential on the roster. the backup qb is a 5-star recruit and they're 2-deep on the d-line. yet every week inferior teams like kentucky, alabama, and s carolina are going right to the wire with lsu. lsu is the #2 team until they lose, but that might not be far off.

 

I

 

LSU

 

Pro:  Preseason rankings.  LSU was ranked either #1 or #2 in nearly every preseason publication for a reason.  They are a talented and respected program who entered the season as a NC contender.  They have done enough to keep that respect, and subsequent ranking, in comparison to the other contenders.

 

Con:  Lack of style points.  LSU could easily have 3-4 losses if given a few breaks went the other direction.  Yes, Florida ('06) and Ohio State ('02) used a similar path to the NC, but rankings have long penalized teams for ugly wins.  The Tigers should be held to the same criteria as their invincibility has diminished every passing week.

 

Oklahoma

 

Pro:  Consistency.  Outside of their hiccup in Boulder the Sooners have largely taken care of business in a methodical and often convincing fashion.  While others (South Fla, BC) have come and gone, and yet others (LSU) have created weekly drama, the Sooners have looked their part the entire season.

 

Con:  The Big Win.  The wins over Miami and Texas have since lost a great deal of their luster.  The Missouri win was nice, but certainly a struggle and played in Norman.  OU lacks the signature moment they can fall back for ammunition supporting their case.

 

Oregon

 

Pro:  The sexy factor.  Oregon touts the Heisman trophy winner and a very balanced offense.  They've played in four big games this year, winning three, and are viewed as an offensive juggernaut with the flashy Nike uniforms.  The Ducks, despite previously shuffling in obscurity, are now suddently a brand name with national appeal and exposure. 

 

Con:  Their defense (and past image).  For starters, their defense has hardly been intimidating.  Maybe high scoring affairs are the rave in the PAC 10, but it hardly inspires confidence that Oregon could stop Chris Wells.  Or handle the diverse attack of Oklahoma.  And their image does not help.  Do you really think Oregon's o-line could handle LSU?  A deeper look at the Ducks reveals a sexy team with some bigger holes than many might have realized.

 

Kansas

 

Pro:  Recent play.  The Jayhawks are playing better every week.  The last three wins have either come against respectable teams or they've beaten downtrodden teams in convincing fashion.  The Hawks seem to be relishing, not panicking, in their newfound environment.

 

Con:  Respect.  Kansas could beat Oklahoma by 20 tomorrow and most still would not believe in them.  They are Kansas, and that will be rightfully held against them until they give us further notice they should be held in a different regard.

 

OCTOBER 27, 2007

 

QUESTION - In order, list the five teams most likely to make the BCS title game.

 

 

S

 

1) ohio st - a buckeyes appearance in the title game is quickly becoming a reality. beaver stadium was supposed to the 1st true test and osu didn't even break stride in dismissing psu. home games vs wisconsin and illinois are now virtually gimmes. the season finale with michigan is the lone obstacle, and ohio st would probably be a 4 pt favorite if the game was played today. the defense has yet to surrender more than 17 pts and the offense is steadliy improving.

 

2) oklahoma - the sooners finish the season with 4 unranked teams (tamu, okst, baylor, and ttech) - 3 of them home games. the b12 title game could be mildly interesting but does anyone really think that either mizzou or kansas is seriously ready to be the b12 champ?

 

3) oregon - with a tough conference and no conference title game, a p10 team has a legit chance of finishing among the top 2 bcs spots. oregon and azst have essentially the same opponents remaining on the schedule, but the ducks get the nod over azst because they play orst instead of usc. plus, the ducks offense is more frightening.

 

4) wvu - the mountaineers, especially white and slaton, seem to be hitting their stride and they have a manageable schedule down the stretch. only 1 of the 4 remaining games is on the road (at cinci) and only uconn is currently ranked. if pollsters don't penalize the conference, wvu will be in the discussion until the last minute.

 

5) bc - for the record, i don't think bc has more than a 1% chance of going undefeated (which will be required for an acc team to make the bcs title game), but any team that can come back in the final 2 minutes to beat vtech in blacksburg has a chance. qb ryan is good enough to beat good defenses (e.g., fsu and miami) and outscore good offenses (e.g., maryland and clemson). the acc title game is yet another potential land mine, likely having to beat an earlier opponent for the 2nd time.

 

 

I

 

1.  Oregon:  The Ducks are looking more and more like a legitimate NC contender.  The schedule includes a bye and zero noteworthy games down the stretch.  The Ducks win out and they're likely in.  Given their improved consistency this season and explosiveness on offense they might be my #1 pick to win the whole thing. 

 

2.  Oklahoma:  OU will maintain solid BCS points if they win out.  A bunch of solid, but very beatable, opponents remain with a potential slaughter in Kansas awaiting in the conference title game.  OKST looks like the largest obstacle at this point.

 

3.  West Virginia:  The Mounties are quietly lurking and waiting for others to slip.  The schedule is tricky with a now very important tilt awaiting verus Connecticut.  A team we all long forgot about still will remain a face in the title hunt.

 

4.  LSU:  This team is on borrowed time.  That or they are copying the 02' Ohio State script.  My guess is that LSU squeaks by Arkansas and into the conference title game only to get blitzed in Atlanta.  They are running out of gas and looking more and more vulnerable by the week.

 

5.  Ohio State:  Michigan will beat Ohio State.

 

 

OCTOBER 20, 2007

 

QUESTION - fast forward to december and predict the conference title game matchups for the sec, b12, and acc and explain why.

 

 

S

 

acc = wake forest vs virginia

 

this will have the lowest tv ratings of any championship game in history.

 

wake has the easiest remaining schedule of the legit contenders in the atlantic - only clemson and uva have winning records. wake is also a very difficult team to prepare for because they are well-coached, have an unorthodox offense, and the name on the jersey says "wake forest". that last feature alone is enough to beat clemson.

 

uva does not have an easy remaining schdule, but neither does anyone else in the coastal. and uva's 2 toughest opponents (vtech and wake) travel to charlottesville - a stadium known for putting opponents to sleep. the season-ender versus tech will likely be for a birth in the title game.

 

b12 = kansas vs texas

 

kansas has a manageable schedule with a home game versus mizzou to end the season that will likely determine the b12 north champ. the jayhawks catch a major break as the game is a the 2nd of back-to-back road games for mizzou.

 

after back-to-back losses earlier in the season the 'horns fell off the radar but a 4-game slate that includes 0 ranked teams to end the season sends them to the title game. the best defense in that group? tamu, by far. colt mckoy will look like a heisman candidate and texas will be vying the mack brown's 2nd b12 title in 3 years - and 1st without vince young.

 

sec = flor vs lsu

 

the wild, wild east is still wide open. 5 of the 6 teams have 2 conference losses meaning that a 3-loss team will likely go to atlanta and tiebreakers will play a role. scar and flor have the inside tracks as neither has loss to another 2-loss east team. the winner of their head-to-head match in a few weeks will determine the east champ. scar will be returning home after back-to-back road games vs tenn and ark, and will be beat up. florida will be fresh off a trip to vandy (yawn) and ready to go. florida wins the game and the east.

 

the west is lsu's to lose. road games at bama and at ole miss are manageable and a season-ending game baton rouge vs arkansas ought to be a sec west party. the wild card here is miles. he's a loose cannon on the sideline and could derail a national title bid with a single moment of idiocy. the crucial game, obviously, is at bama. and while many will see this as an upset alert, i don't. saban still gets 90% of the credit for this team and miles and commpany have been waiting 2+ years to show saban (and the cfb world) what they've become without him. they make the most of their chance on nov 3rd.

 

 

I

 

Big 12: Missouri versus Oklahoma

 

The North is a two horse race.  Yet Kansas will face two tough roadies and a neutral site with Mizzou perhaps for the North bid.  I cannot name one player from Kansas and am guessing they fall off the map and likely out of the top 25 by bowl season.  The balance of the Tigers will prevail.

 

OKST is a legitimate contender in the South and the season-ending battle against OU might determine the bid.  OU has a few hurdles left, but still have the most talent of the teams still challenging.  A looming tilt with Tech is dicey for OU, but a game Stoops is well versed in preparing for.  This rematch is a ripe possibility to knock OU out of the NC game.

 

ACC: Virginia Tech versus Clemson

 

Both VT and UVA has tough roads ahead and they also conclude the season against one another.  Similar to Kansas, I cannot name one player on the Cavalier squad.  Tech has a proven and potent defense that should lead them through this trek, potentially with one more loss, but enough to land the Coastal bid.  UVA does not have a gimme left.

 

The Boston College implosion will begin this week against VT.  It'll contine with two tricky road dates and visits from both FLA schools.  I'd be shocked if they got through this with less than two losses.  Wake will remain a pesky contender, but for once we'll see Clemson play well late in the season largely a result of a very manageable home stretch to the schedule.

 

SEC: LSU versus.......um.....hmmm.....Florida

 

The much anticipated LSU-Bama game will go a long way in determining the West representative.  If Bama wins they appear to be a very likely choice even with a loss to Auburn.  MY gut, however, tells me LSU has just enough in the tank to survive until Atlanta.  In looking at the "mental dynamics" of the Bama-LSU game I think the Tigers will have more motivation and and internal spite than Alabama.

 

The East is a crapshoot.  This thing could potentially result in a four way tie.  For now, I will eliminate KU and Tennessee while readily admitting both may still play huge roles down the stretch.  I will also eliminate SC due to two very tough games (@TN, UF) and a still scarey date with Arkansas.  That leaves  UGA and Florida and this is when I toss the schedules out the window.  Florida is clearly a better team than Georgia and should make that very clear this weekend.  The remaining game in Columbia will be very intriguing, but even a loss might get the Gators through to Atlanta.  The East is nearly impossible to decipher at this point. 

 

OCTOBER 13, 2007

 

QUESTION - Explain three CFB related items you were wrong about this year.

 

 

S

 

the b12 - 4 b12 teams were in my preseason top 15; with texas, nebraska, and texas a&m all being ranked ahead of what i thought would be an above average (but not special) oklahoma. so far oklahoma has been very good while the other 3 programs are crumbling at record pace. i showed mack brown respect by believing his success wasn't 100% due to vince young. wrong. i had faith that this was finally the year for callahan and fran to disprove the doubters. wrong again. adding insult to injury, i had zero faith in the "pinkel express" at big bad mizzou and was convinced ron prince would be another mike gundy - a coach way in over his head. gene chizik has been terrible at iowa st, i thought he'd be decent. dan hawkins has been decent at colorado, i thought he'd he terrible (again). i did not give kansas a 2nd thought. of the 12 teams in the b12, i have so far been wrong on 10. if gundy and okie state roll off 5 wins in a row, you'll know exactly why . . . because i thought they didn't have a chance.

 

on a positive note, i think i'm safe with baylor.

 

lsu & usc - it wasn't hard to predict that lsu and usc would have at least one loss; both had monster schedules. and to their credit both could finish the season with just 1 loss. but i (like lots of other people) bought the hype that lsu and usc were head and shoulders, knees and toes better than anyone else in cfb. "they might lose," i thought, "but not to stanford and kentucky". wrong. so far lsu has genuinely looked the part of the #1 team, but certainly not yet looked like juggernaut. a ho-hum game against tulane, a last minute drive to beat a florida team that lost to auburn, and a 3-ot loss to kentucky. and though kentucky is a fine team no one is fooled into believing that kentucky has the coaching staff or thet players to legitimately be on the same field with lsu (and rightly so). lsu is probably the best team in cfb, but the rest of the cfb is mush closer than i thought. of course, compared to usc, lsu might be mistaken for a juggernaut. usc has a stunningly bad loss to stanford and underwhelming performances against p10 bottom-feeders washington and arizona. again, both lsu and usc could ultimately prove 1 and 2, but for now neither is the dominant force i initially expected them to be.

 

john david booty - my preseason heisman pick has been exceedingly average. he excites no one, he minimizes the endless supply of playmakers around him, and we haven't heard a single story about him partying with snoop dog or plowing tara reid. this guy doesn't belong in LA as the usc qb, he belongs in indiana selling vacuum cleaners (and he'd probably be average at that too).

 

 

I

 

1.  The manner in which USC is playing:

 

Allow me to explain.  I am not surprised that USC has a loss.  I am not surprised they have had a couple close P10 wins.  However, I am shocked how lackadasical they've appeared this season.  The Stanford loss (at home, nonetheless) was the perfect recipe for a wake-up call and instead  resulted in another listless show at home against a terrible Arizona squad.  Carrol has loads of talent and the weekly depth chart battles in practice should provide for a motivated group.  Instead there appears to be some deeper issues with this squad.  I am still not sold they are a bust, but get ready for some to annoint the absence of Lane Kiffin as a bigger loss than we thought.

 

2.  The Michigan offense as a juggernaut:

 

This has been so difficult to watch this season.  What appeared to be a balanced and lethal unit has revealed itself as a predictable and excruciatingly stale unit to watch.  Henne continues to throw head scratching interceptions and Manningham appears better suited for Clemson or FSU football.  To boot, OC Mike DeBord has scaled this show back to a vintage 1976 Bo Schembechler coached team that refuses to take chances and embraces 3rd and short.  My biggest fear is that this present coaching staff, if back next year, has leaned way too heavily on Mike Hart and will clueless how to adapt next season.

 

3.  Louisville

 

Even if Kragthorpe was not the real deal I figured he could keep this ship afloat for at least one season.  Oops.  It has to be so depressing being a Louisville fan right now.  You've got the best player since Johnny Unitas on the field.  A player/recruit you'll likely never land again.  And you suck.  At least they have the basketball identity to fall back on.  But if I am their AD I take a long look at replacing Kragthopre after this year.  Sometimes a new hire lets you know immediately they are the wrong choice.

 

 

OCTOBER 6, 2007

 

QUESTION - give midterm grades to each of the teams in the sec/b10.

 

 

S

 

kentucky = (A+) - being 6-1 and ranked in the top 10 is previoulsy unimaginable territory for kentucky football. the wins over lville and ark were solid, but the  win over lsu was scintillating and proved 100% that kentucky merits respect. the loss to scar is respectable.

 

lsu = (A) - a dominating performance against vtech, a gritty win over a good scar team, and one for the ages versus florida give the tigers  the 3 best wins of any top 10 team. the loss to kentucly appears to be a respectable loss.

 

s carolina = (A) - it's not surprising that spurrier is winning at scar. what's surprising is that he's doing it with defense and a steady, controlled offense. the one belmish on the record was a very respectable loss to the nation's #1 team.

 

auburn (B-) - the win versus florida and the loss to miss state essentially cancel each other out. there are marquee games left on the schedule, but the way cox and company have played on offense that's not a good thing.

 

miss st = (C+) - state is 4-3. that's 4 wins and 2 losses. the 4 wins are the most sly croom has ever had in a single season. the chances are high that state will lose 6 straight to end the season, but for now they've beaten auburn (with a walkon qb) and own a winning record.

 

florida = (C) - the gators crime is that they've been average. but as defending national champs, with the all-everything qb, elite playmakers on both sides of the ball, and the "it" coach average isn't enough. a home loss to a bad auburn team and blowing a 4th quarter lead at lsu leaves florida .500 in conference.

 

georgia = (C-) - the dawgs have yet to log a quality win (okst and bama are the best 2) and stafford is hot and cold. fortunately the schedule in oct and nov sets up to give the dawgs a good combination of easy wins and ranked opponents.

 

tennessee (C-) - the georgia win has things looking up and the schedule is very friendly down the stretch (bama is the toughest road game), but it's hard to ignore the beatings the vols received from cal and flor.

 

alabama = (C-) - expectations soared when bama beat arkansas on a last-second td. but consecutive losses to georgia and fsu and a lack-luster effort vs houston have tempered things since. technically the tide is still on track to match preseason expectations, but the offense has really sputtered and the defense has shown vulnerability.

 

vandy = (D) - vandy is still vandy but a win over ole miss and a few exciting players (dixon and bennett) has to count for something.

 

arkansas = (F) - 300+ yds rushing a game with 2 backs that are averaging 100+ yds per game isn't enough if it doesn't translate to wins. the hogs have relinquished 4th quarter leads in all 3 of their losses - just when a power running game ought to be in control.

 

ole miss = (F) - yah yah football. yah yah brent shaffer. the coach o experimenter is failing. some initial buzz, loud yelling, and few 4-star juco kids  led to nothing. as did the addition of a few u-miami rejects coaches. coach o will be back in so-cal this time next year.

 

 

I

 

A+:  Indiana:  Given their sad past and traumatic offseason this program should be getting more attention.  They have not beat a good team yet, but being one win from bowl eligibility this earler is quite a feat.

 

A:  Ohio State:  This is depressing.  They look like the same team as last year, just different players on offense.  Two nice road wins and maybe the best defense in the land.  If OSU does not have a rebuilding year this season when will they ever?

 

A-:  Illinois:  The infusion of talent appears to be paying off quicker than imagined.  Two steady wins at home and the only loss was a close affair against an unbeaten and ranked opponent.  Illinois has a long ways to go still, but they've grabbed everyone's attention in the B10.

 

B-:  Wisconsin:  They've underachieved and are rightfully viewed skeptically by everyone in the country.  Yet they remain a factor in the B10 with several key games remaining.  I have a feeling Wisky won't fade away quietly.

 

C+:  Purdue:  At least give Purdue some credit for creating buzz albeit short-lived.  They still don't belong with the Big Boys, but have held onto their spot as a middle-tier B10 with a few playmakers.  Painter will enter next season as the best returning B10 Qb.

 

C:  Michigan State:  We've seen this story before albeit with a different twist.  Instead of a flukey offense MSU is relying on a sound running game and an uncanny ability to rush the passer.  A bowl game and win over Michigan will more than suffice for this fan base.

 

C-:  Penn State:  It must be incredibly frustrating to be a PSU fan lately.  The 5 star QB fails to improve.  The star RB is suspended.  Off the field incidents, including the coach, are defining this season.  That, and there is little rationale hope of a nice turnaround this season.  PSU gets a break because next year should be "their year".

 

D+:  Michigan:  A legendary and unforgettable upset and a historic shellacking in the Big House are what marks this season and partially Carr's legacy now.  What was thought to be a juggernaut offense is nothing more than Mike Hart off the left tackle.  Even when UM wins they look bad.  This team has been an enormous disapppointment and we all have that nagging feeling that more is ahead.

 

D-:  Northwestern: A failing grade is likely deserved, but the Cats are cut some slack due to the injury of Terrell Sutton and a win in East Lansing.  This is a young team with no direction for now or the future.

 

E:  Iowa:  Ouch.  Not only are the Hawkeyes losing, but they are losing bad.  Salt in the wound for blowing another contest to ISU and at home to Indiana by 18.  The offense would have trouble moving the ball in the MAC and the Ferentz shine is 100% gone.  Back to reality in Iowa City.

 

E:  Minnesota:  You get what you deserve.  This goes to not only the AD, but also the fans who clamored Mason could not "take them to the next level."  Neither can Coach Brewster, but he can take a couple of levels the wrong direction.  I find enjoyment out of this situation.

 

SEPTEMBER 30, 2007

 

QUESTION - Using your own personal criteria, in order who are the top 8 CFB coaches?  Provide rationale for each.

 

 

S

 

top 8 coaches



1) pete carroll (holding steady) - the premier coach and the premier program in cfb (national titles, heisman winners, hollywood on the sideline - it's ridiculous)

2) steve spurrier (going up) - spurrier will succeed at s carolina to a level that most coaches couldn't reach at texas (ps - he did the same thing at duke and florida)

3) jim tressel (holding steady) - he does everything a great coach should: he wins titles, beats his rival, monopolizes in-state talent, and keep the program off probation.

4) bob stoops (going down) - stoops stock has fallen slightly over the past 3 years with untimely losses and renegade players but he still gets top talent, wins the conference, and beats his rival

5) urban meyer (going up) - meyer is becoming the new stoops by hoarding talent and winning early, but it's still too early to put him hirer on this list (after all, he did lose to mike shula)

6) nick saban (holding steady) - gets nfl-quality talent, has nfl-quality schemes, hires top assistants, and his impact at lsu was legendary (he created enough momentum to keep lsu a top-5 team for 3 seasons AFTER he left)

7) frank beamer (going down) - beamer's engineered 8 10-win seasons in 12 years and he gets extra credit for doing this at a school with no winning tradition and a limited recruiting base, but he has yet to avoid a mid-season loss or 2

8) brian kelly (going up) - think meyer + tressel. he's won smaller division titles (like tressel) and he's won immediately at new schools (like meyer)

notable omissions - mark richt, tommy tuberville, lloyd carr, rich rodriguez

falling - kirk ferentz, dennis francione

climbing - dan hawkins, bert bielema, les miles

 

 

I

 

8.  Paul Johnson:  Does a lot with a little.  Owns his fiercest rival, beats Air Force, and is competitive against Notre Dame.  All while coaching kids who are on campus for reasons other than football and does so in a rustic, old-fashioned manner that is impossible not to appreciate.

 

7.  Bob Stoops:  OU has gone 5 straight years without a winning record prior to Stoops arrival.  He won a NC two years later and in the last five years has attended the Rose, Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar Bowls.  Would be higher, but OU's elite shine has worn off a bit.

 

6.  Nick Saban:  No coach in the country dictates respect with their demeanor more than Saban.  A football intellect raised under the disciplined and stoic eye of Bill Billichek.  Until he proves otherwise Saban will always carry the belief that he is smarter and more prepared than however is on the opposite sideline.

 

5.  Dennis Erickson:  Just hear me out for a second.  Do you have any doubt if Erickson were at USC, Florida, or Oklahoma that they would become an immediate CFB power?  Would USC be any different if Erickson were hired instead of Pete Carroll?  Erickson is a miniature version of Jimmy Johnson, Steve Spurrier, and Pete Carroll.  Confident, brash, savvy, and fully able to motivate a group of punks immediately.

 

4.  Jim Tressell:  Likely the most organized and detailed coach in CFB.  Preaches the basics and wins with defense and special teams.  His teams are fundamentally sound, physical, and disciplined (at least on the field).  If he did not coach OSU I might actually like him.  Until then I want to reach through the television and strangle his ass.

 

3.  Urban Meyer:  If he were a CEO Ford Motor would have already hired him.  He possesses the ability to turn around anything and do it quickly.  His signature moment (obviously) was totally outclassing Jim Tressell in every angle of coaching (preparation, game planning, motivation) of last year's NC game.  Young, highly competitive, and able to recruit as well as anyone outside of Pete Carroll.

 

2.  Pete Carroll:  His credentials speak for themselves.  However, what I admire most about Carroll is that those underneath him become instant hot commodities.  His wisdom of the game is evident by the attention and respect his assistants get after working with him.  Norm Chow, Eddie O, Lane Kiffin, and likely Steve Sarkisian are all guys who were relative unknowns (except Chow) but ended up with high profile gigs after being with Carroll.  The man has it all.

 

1.  Steve Spurrier:  The godfather of present day coaches.  Spurrier is building a very competitive program at South Carolina, but most impressive is that he is doing it with defense, a running game, and a methodical passing game.  He has adapted brilliantly to the talent he has been forced to use at South Carolina.

 

SEPTEMBER 23, 2007

 

QUESTION - what do we know so far?

 

 

S

 

what's known:

 

1) getting a new coach doesn't promise a anything. for azst and mich st things are looking up. for unc and stanford nothing has changed. for lville and minnesota things are getting worse.

 

2) the difference between #1 and #119 is shrinking. every year the upsets are more frequent and more shocking. app state over michigan was just another example of it.

 

3) the big east is what we thought it was . . . a weak conference. why? no defense. even a team with a little defense, like s flor, can win the conference.

 

4) it's hard to fake being great. wake forest, steve slaton, and charlie weis, are among those former superstars on their way back to earth.

 

what's expected:

 

1) everyone will lose. ou and wvu have already obliged. wisconsin will shortly. usc, osu, and lsu will eventually.

 

2) the hesiman winner will come from the sec. mcfadden, woodson, and tebow are the most likely candidates.

 

3) the bcs title game will feature at least 1 team that no one is talking about. bc, wisc, osu, and cal will be the names moving to the front of the line this month.

 

4) brian kelly at cincinnati will be the national coach of the year.

 

I

 

What we've learned...

 

1.  Defense is paramount.  Without a fast, athletic, and attacking defense you are a pretender in the NC discussion. 

 

2.  Despite renewed optimism things still have not changed at Miami, PSU, TAMU, and FSU.

 

3.  LSU is the best team in the SEC by far.

 

4.  The Heisman Race is shaping up to be one of the better races in recent memory.

 

5.  We should quit waiting for Anthony Morelli and Brandon Cox to mature.  They are what they are.  And while we're at it we should quit waiting for Chan Gailey and Dave Wannstedt to impose their NFL knowledge on the CFB world.  They also are what they are.

 

6.  We still don't know anything about Clemson, MSU, and Oregon yet.

 

What we should expect...

 

1.  Expect the LSU-UF game to be billed as "The Game of the Year" only to be trumped later by a more exciting Bama-LSU game and the more meaningful USC-Oregon game.

 

2.  Expect OSU and Rutgers to hang around awhile in the NC hunt due to their running game and defense.  Consequently, it is a matter of time before UF, WVA, and Cal are exposed as pretenders.

 

3.  Kentucky is not a fluke.  The Wildcats will not only continue to excite, but also challenge for a January 1 bowl.

 

4.  WVA will collapse and finish with three losses.  MSU will actually start to play good teams and the Dantonio shine will wear off quickly.

 

5.  At the end of the year Dennis Erickson might look like the best new hire of the group.

 

6.  OU will play LSU in the BCS Title Game assuming LSU survives the SEC Title Game.  A one loss USC team and unbeaten Rutgers team will also be in the conversation.

 

SEPTEMBER 16, 2007

 

QUESTION - Take the following...

 

1.  CFB program

2.  CFB current player

3.  CFB current coach

4.  CFB fan base

 

and compare it to its NFL equivalent.

 

For example, the Detroit Lions are the Michigan State Spartans because they annually taunt us and make us believe, yet they continually reveal themselves as nothing more than a shitty team void of any character, leadership, or development of talent.

 

 

S

 

1) vtech = denver broncos - a team that rarely receives preseason attention yet always seems to factor into the postseason discussion. often has a roster full of unknown role players. the consumate over-achiever. the occassional an elite player (like vick or elway) can catapult them into the title-hunt.

 

2) brian brohm = carson palmer - an elite, franchise type qb. directs a powerful offense that has to outscore every opponent to win. can put up 34 points (or 45) and 5 tds and still lose. golden boy.

 

3) kirk ferentz = jeff fisher - has the reputation of being a great coach but has really never done aything and the closest he got took a miracle play.

 

4) arkansas razorbacks = atlanta falcons - fans undeservedly expect more. always average. never get elite coaching, instead get coaches on the way up (who never pan out) or on the way down. rarely get elite players (mcfadden + vick), and there's usually not enough other talent to matter. best qb has better legs than arm.

 

 

I

 

 

SEPTEMBER 9, 2007

 

QUESTION - is this weekend's um/nd game more important for michigan or notre dame?

 

 

S

 

michigan, easy.

 

2007 was already a rebuilding year for notre dame, who was destined to have true freshman scattered all over the field (notably at qb). added, nd was an average team last year even with an explosive offense. contrast that with michigan. 2007 was supposed to be national title run,  led by upperclassmen at the most visible position - upperclassman who had been considered top nfl prospects and who had led michigan to an 11-0 start in 2006 and a spot in the national title discussion even after the final bcs poll. the game is bigger for michigan because they have more to lose.

 

no matter what happens this week, notre dame will still have a below-average team when it faces usc, ucla, msu, purdue, etc. there's still no proven talent on this team and it'll be worse than many of the remaining teams on the schedule. a victory over michigan won't change that. michigan on the other hand still has all the talent that earned them preseason top-5 ranking and all the coaching that led to an 11-0 start just last year. the ingredients are there to win the b10, play in a bcs bowl, and finish in the top-15. the game is bigger for michigan because they have more to gain.

 

I

 

By a whisker this game is more important for Michigan for the following reasons...

 

1.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding year at Notre Dame.  Nobody had high expectations for them entering this season.  UM was ranked #5 preseason.  Notre Dame never expected to win this game and UM never expected to lose this game.

 

2.  The game is in Ann Arbor.  It is always tough losing to a rival.  However, it is even harder to swallow when it is at home and you are staring at visiting their joint the following year. 

 

3.  Despite the mild rumblings Charlie Weis is safely employed.  Lloyd Carr is sitting on the hottest seat in CFB.  While a win over ND won't cure much, a lose will add ample fuel to a fire that is already out of control.

 

4.  Michigan still has something important to play for.  Realistically ND is playing for a spot in a mid/late December bowl game.  Important, but hardly a key storyline in the world of CFB.  While unlikely, UM could still end up in a January 1st bowl game.  Beating ND will help their resume' and give the team potentially something to build upon entering conference play.

 

5.  The history of UM football.  Notre Dame, Miami, USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Florida, and nearly every other CFB powerhouse has endured a very poor 2-3 (or more) year stretch in our lifetime.  Michigan has not.  While this season is largely shot, their is still some pride with our bowl streak, non-losing season streak, and our dignity.  We don't want that stretch.  Our consistency is our signature and a 7-5 season is forgotten quicker than a 4-8 season.

 

SEPTEMBER 2, 2007

 

QUESTION - Michigan football just endured an "interesting" week.  Listed below are some key figures in the middle of this shitstorm.  Take a guess what each is thinking this very moment.

 

1.  Lloyd Carr

2.  Ron English

3.  Chad Henne

4.  Bill Martin (AD)

5.  Mary Sue Coleman (Prez)

6.  Michigan Season Ticket Holders

 

 

S

 

1) carr - what carr says: "we'll go back to basics and be more focused next week". what carr thinks: "an early season, non-conference loss is nothing new. if we win the b10 and go to the rose bowl then the fans will be happy and saturdays loss won't mean anything".

 

2) english - this is the toughest one because i think he's the only one looking backwards. "how did we lose? people are going to blame me and i don't know how to fix the problem."

 

3) henne - "we can still win the national title. we'll beat nd, psu, wis, and osu and people will be so impressed that they'll vote us in over usc or lsu."

 

4) ad martin - "i hope nobody important stops donating money".

 

5) president coleman - "martin better hope that nobody important stops donating money".

 

6) ticket holders - there's not consensus among the season ticket holders. 1/2 are conservative alumni who combine careful decision making with deep, firm maize & blue loyalty. they remember the national title drought, are cordial to notre dame fans, and still think the rose bowl is the ultimate prize. they want carr to win more but are generally happy with the state of the program (even after this week). and 1/2 are plain old fans who combine knee-jerk decision making with raw fanaticism. they believe michigan should be 12-0 every year, believe carr is 110% responsible for everything, and refuse to own anything red. they want carr fired yesterday and pete carroll in his place tomorrow ("why not us", they'll say).

 

 

 

 

 

I

 

1.  Carr.  Many have pegged last Saturday as the final straw for LC.  While it makes logical sense, I am not so sure.  Carr has a lot of JoePa in him.  I can see that defeat making him more stubborn and more likely to leave on his own terms.  Carr is likely very defensive and also very naive right now.

 

2.  English.  Nobody has fallen harder than Ron English.  He has been the odds on favorite to replace Carr since his magical 10 game stretch last year.  Now that is nothing more than a fantasy and he could be looking for a new job next year if LC retires. English is scared, uncertain, and confused right now.  How did this all go so wrong?

 

3.  Henne.  He is essentially the equivalent of an upcoming free agent in his walk year.  If he produces big he is a 1st rounder with guaranteed money.  A few more App State performances and he might be a 6th round flier.  I would guess Henne (rememeber, he was not elected a captain) is looking more at his future than this present season.  While they are certainly connected, Henne is likely oblivious to the monumental upset and more pissed that his draft stock just took a major hit.

 

4.  Bill Martin.  Martin is in an interesting situation.  His primary worry must be if LC is going to retire at the end of this season and make his job easier.  He is starting his short list of coaches, debating what direction to go, and receiving plenty of outside advice from influential boosters.  Yet, in the back of his mind he is scared to death that LC might not retire, thus putting him in an awfully tough spot. 

 

5.  Mary Sue Coleman.  She is simply glad it is not her mess to oversee.  She likely got over the upset before the evening news.  If Martin asks she'll interject a bland opinion on the topic, but would prefer to not be consulted.

 

6.  Season Ticket Holder:  The majority of them are people like me.  They love the sport and the team, but did not attend UM or donate heavily to the program.  They are rightfully pissed and bored with the idea of going to the Oregon game.  Most will continue to attend because their tickets are worthless on the street.  They still harbor the delusional thought that we could run the table, but will resort to bitching about Carr if the season spirals out of control and debating whether Urban Meyer or John Gruden is the better replacement.  They won't hesitate to re-order tickets next year and will cite data from the Fielding Yost era to proclaim UM's greatness when getting poked fun at.

 

AUGUST 26, 2007

 

QUESTION - briefly preview the 2007 sec or b10 conference season.

 

 

S

 

teams

 

the 2007 version of the sec is deep through the middle with 9 potential bowl teams, but has only 1 real national title contender in lsu. a major question will be whether les miles can maneuver a talented lsu team through the sec schedule - including a date with alabama. as many as 6 of the remaining 8 teams could be vying for jan 1 bowls.

 

fresh off a national title, florida has the pieces to repeat in the east but will have to fend off tennessee and georgia, both very talented teams with huge unknowns (tenn = offense, uga = defense). upstarts kentucky and vanderbilt have a chance to play spoiler along the way and s carolina is a darkhorse to appear in the title game.

 

lsu is the preseason pick to win the west, but auburn will be in the mix until the end - as they have been each of the last 3 years. arkansas might have been a popular upset pick if it weren't for the offseason drama in fayetteville. so that role has gone to alabama and 10 returning offensive starters. neither mississippi team will be a factor.

 

players

 

darren mcfadden is the headliner and preseason favorite for the heisman and doak walker (again). and nfl types are high on lsu d-lineman glenn dorsey and tyrus jackson, kentucky qb andre woodson, and florida d-end derrick harvey. but the real story in the sec this year is a bevy of unproven qbs. tim tebow and matt flynn are probably the top 2 qbs in the sec (after woodson) and neither has ever started a conference game.

 

if mcfadden can repeat his sophmore campaign he'll be the lead name on heisman lists. but with all the distractions in fayetteville, a 2nd doak walker will have to do.

 

coaches

 

nick saban's arrival at bama is enough to win 10 games (at least some fans say so). 1 of those wins is expected to be against his former lsu recurits and now coach les miles. miles has yet to  maximize the lsu talent and a loss to saban (and a less talented bama team) would be devastating. sly croom is in his 4th year at miss st and has yet to win 10 games total and the occassional upset (2004 vs florida, 2006 vs bama) have done little to satisfy the fan base. croom's would be the hottest seat if not for the bizarre happenings involving houston nutt at arkansas. but nutt has a cure in mcfadden + jones, croom doesn't. finally, ed 'the ogre' orgeron plateued as a head coach in just 2+ seasons. don;t be surprised if orgeron's career win-list is shorter than brent schaffer's (who is now a wr).

 

so what happens?

 

florida beats auburn in the sec title game. mcfadden wins his 2nd doak walker (but no heisman) and sec player of the year. and saban spoils lsu's national title hopes. tubberville wins sec coach of the year. scarolina sneaks into a january bowl and finishes ahead of tenn and uga.

 

 

 

 

I

 

Ten items that should summarize the upcoming B10 season well...

 

1.  Biggest Game:

 

Penn State at Michigan.  The Game and the UM-UW tilt in Madison will certainly play huge factors.  However, this September tilt will dicate early pole position in the conference.

 

2.  Coach on the Hot Seat:

 

Joe Tiller.  No B10 coach is in a make-or-break season.  However, Tiller resides on the warmest seat.  Purdue fans should judge with caution and be thankful for what they have.  Is losing a bowl game worse than missing a bowl game?

 

3.  Team with the most to prove:

 

Michigan.  In short, beat Ohio State.  In 08' UM will be in a rebuilding year and traveling to Columbus.  A loss this year might be the toughest to ever swallow in the Carr era.

 

4.  Don't buy the hype:

 

Illinois.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  Zook still has to coach this talent.  Give him the San Diego Chargers and he makes the Alamo Bowl.  This is still a team that lost to Syracuse, Indiana, Northwestern, and barely beat Ohio last year.

 

5.  Hardware:

 

The B10 will contend for nearly every major piece of CFB hardware available.  In the end, they'll come home with the Thorpe, Outland, and in an upset the Doak Walker.

 

6.  Remember them in 2008.

 

Northwestern.  The Cats will struggle to hit a bowl, albeit still possible, but Fitzgerald has a young nucleus that will peak in 08.  The Cats are not far behind what Walker set in place.

 

7.  Most underrated player:

 

James Hardy.  The IU WR would he a household name, and potential All-American, if he played at a good program.  Keep an eye on him in the NFL.

 

8.  Most overrated player:

 

Dan Connor.  Can we stop with the lovefest for white PSU 'backers.  Make his name D'Angelo Soloman and put him on Iowa and he doesn't crack the honorable mention B10 for linebackers.  King and Scirrotto are the most valuable pieces to the Nittany Lion defense.

 

9.  Biggest Storyline:

 

Anthony Morelli.  PSU has gained momentum as a trendy B10 contender.  Partly due to their trio at WR, partly due to their schedule, and largely due to Morelli's "breakout" game against TN last year in the Outback.  Morelli has the most to gain (and besides a couple of heraled seniors in A2) the most to lose this season.

 

10.  What happens?

 

Michigan and PSU hit the BCS circuit.  OSU and Iowa peak late and beat SEC teams come bowl season.  Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State go bowling. 

 

AUGUST 19, 2007

 

QUESTION - Predict the winners of the following season-ending awards...

 

1.  Heisman (top 5)

2.  Thorpe

3.  Biletnikoff

4.  Doak Walker

5.  Outland

6.  Butkus

7.  John Mackey

8.  Davey O'Brien

 

 

S

 

1) heisman = john david booty - the trojans will have 4 winners in 6 years (3 being qbs)

 

next 4 =

 

b) darren mcfadden - hogs won't win enough games for dmac to bring home the prize (a 2nd doak walker will do)

 

c) desean jackson - desmond howard plus peter warrick minus free shoes

 

d) colt brennan - the numbers will be too gaudy to ignore

 

e) colt mckoy - will blow through the b12 like a renegade booster

 

2) jim thorpe = tom zbikowski - voters throw irish a bone

 

3) fred biletnikoff = dj hall - the tide receiver will have a monster year, lead the sec in most wr categories, and be too hard to ignore come december

 

4) doak walker = darren mcfadden - dmac will fall short of the heisman but be the 1st repeat winner in a decade

 

5) outland = demario pressley - his game will explode under the obrien watch

 

6) dick butkus = dan connor - psu will win big with a steady, timely defense led by connor

 

7) john mackey = chase coffman - if mizzou is going to challenge for the b12 coffman has to be a major weapon

 

8) davey obrien = brian brohm - rare though it is, brohm will win the obrien and not be invited to nyc

 

 

I

 

Heisman:

 

1.  Brian Brohm:  Despite playing in the still evolving Big East, Brohm gets love for two reasons; he came back for his senior season and he is regarded as a top-level NFL prospect.  A top 10 finish for Louisville won't hurt either.

 

2.  JD Booty:  His name and program will exceed his ability and numbers.  At the end of the day the voters will realize he is solid, but not elite.

 

3.  Andre Woodson:  My darkhorse.  Woodson is fun to watch and will generate a lot of attention as the dynamic leader of an improved KU squad. 

 

4.  Steve Slaton:  Perhaps the safest bet to get invited to NYC.

 

5.  Mike Hart:  Nothing flashy, and as a result not a true contender, but his lifetime achievements will generate the respect vote.

 

Notable Omission:  Darren McFadden:  As you've stated prior too many obstacles to overcome.  Plus, there have been huge expectations placed upon his shoulders.  If he disappoints, even a bit, it would put a huge dent in his chances.  Heisman winners nearly all exceed their preseason expecations.

 

Biletnikoff:  Desean Jackson:  In short, a stud. 

 

Outland: Jake Long.  He was voted the B10's best o-lineman last year.  Not #3 overall pick Joe Thomas.

 

Davey O'Brien: Brian Brohm. Should win in a landslide.

 

Mackey:  Chase Coffman:  Rarely is a tight end the best offensive weapon on a team.  If Mizzou succeeds this year Coffman will generate a mild buzz.

 

Thorpe:  Malcom Jenkins:  The B10 will not be a great passing league this year and a lockdown like Jenkins may approach double digit INT's.

 

Butkus:  Rey Maualuga:  He'll be the face of what looks like a nasty Trojan defense.  His penchant for the highlight reel big hit will separated him from other notable candidates.

 

Doak Walker:  Mike Hart.  In an upset, Hart will finish the year with a big game (and a win) over Ohio State and leave a nice image with the voters.

 

AUGUST 12, 2007

 

QUESTION - list 5 bold predictions for the upcoming 2007 cfb season.

 

 

S

 

5 bold predictions (sec style):

 

1) the sec west will have 3 new coaches in 2008 - byebye coach croom, coach nutt, and coach orgeron. in tribute, here's a summary of the break-up talk:

 

a) to coach croom, from miss st - it's not you, it's me. i've gotta clean myself up before i can be serious with someone again.

 

b) to coach o, from ole miss - you knew we could never be serious. we had some fun, but now i'm ready to settle down.

 

c) to coach nutt, from arkansas - i've had enough of your games. i don't know how to figure you out, but i know i deserve better. 

 

2) mcfadden won't win the heisman - too many variables to overcome. felix jones will get lots of carries, arkansas will have 4+ losses, hogs have never had a heisman winner, mcfadden must stay injury-free, hogs have no passsing game to distract defenses, nutt-saga storyline will distract the media, and on and on.

 

3) auburn will win the sec west and scar the sec east - lsu and flor are getting all the preseason pub, but aub has better coaching and a more seasoned qb than lsu and is not breaking in a new oc, a new qb, wrs, and rbs. ditto for scar and flor (except flor has a better staff).

 

4) tebow will have a major sophmore slump - in 2006, leak was a star and tebow was a novelty act. tebow made his name on 4-5 qb draws per game. he was never asked to orchestrate a game-winning drive. never asked to complete a 4th and 13. never asked to audible at the line. there are major growing pains ahead for tebow.

 

5) 8 sec teams will be bowl eligible - since a 6-6 mark equals bowl eligibility this may not be all that 'bold', but ark, scar, tenn, aub, bama, lsu, flor, and uga will all receive bowl invites. kent, vandy, and ole miss could also be in the running. 8 will be the most ever for any 1 conference.

 

 

I

 

1.  The Big East will again enjoy an exciting season with a huge OOC upset (South FLA over Auburn), two teams ranked in the top 12 and a Heisman Trophy winner.

 

2.  Kentucky will beat a ranked SEC team at home.  Likely Florida or LSU.

 

3.  Mark Dantonio will struggle to get to 6-6 and then get whipped in the Motor City Bowl by an in-state MAC school.

 

4.  CJ Gamble will emerge as the best tailback option at USC and enjoy huge success while Joe McKnight will compliment him well as a 3rd down back.  SC will again play in the NC game, but will win four games by less than a touchdown with their lone loss coming at AZST late in the season.  They'll hold off a one loss Big East team to make the NC game and the BCS will again grab all the headlines with the ensuing controversy over a team making the title game after losing late in the season.

 

5.  The SEC will be annointed the best conference through the regular season because their fans will tell us so.  However, the B10 and B12 will have similar success with the ACC lagging behind the rest.  Bowl season will dictate this title and the SEC will again have a mediocre bowl record.

 

AUGUST 5, 2007

 

QUESTION - Name five comparable CFB things entering this season that are HOT and NOT (meaning not too hot).  Essentially you'll list 10 separate items.

 

 

S

 

1) preseason

 

hot = idiot sports commentators - sports opinions are a dime a dozen: i have them, you have them, my mom has them. so it should be no surprise that the opinions that receive air time are the ones that: a) come from idiots, b) come from idiots who scream loudly or c) come from former players who are, by definition, one step below idiots. while this a painful and obvious fact, the number of idiot commentators still grows rapidly (thanks espn & fox). the clear and dangerous consequence of this is that each idiot is now louder, dumber, unyielding, and undeservedly confident to: a) bully/persuade the lesser idiots around them and b) drum the audience into submission.

 

not = taking a chance - paradoxically, while there are louder, dumber commentators those commentators take fewer and fewer chances with their picks. even though college football has more parody now than ever before, preseason rankings and heisman hype have almost no variety. everyone picks the same team bcs champ and the same heisman winner. do you want to know what the 2007 season will be like? usc will win the bcs title game against lsu and mcfadden will win the hesiman. don't believe me? look at any one of dozens of preseason mags and any online top-25 poll. it's so unimaginative it's idiotic (which is no surprise because idiots are making the predictions). and those predictions always pan out, right? after all, in 2006 didn't brady quinn win the heisman and ohio st win the national title?

 

the result of these 2 simulatenous forces is a bunch of idiots with no insight who make the same predictions and then see who can scream it the loudest. apparently, the loudest person is the most right.

 

2) postseason

 

hot = plus 1 - a plus 1 game is a real possibility. the people who matter (i.e., presidents) really do like the idea of adding games. understand this, they don't like the idea of adding 3 games in a playoff system. however, they will add: 1) a 12th regular season game, 2) a conference title game, and 3) a plus 1 game.

 

not = playoff - any playoff talk is 100% driven by media and fans, and it usually involves complaining. translation: it isn't going to happen. the people who matter are not talking about a playoff. the reason: money. when someone with real cash starts talking, the topic will heat up.

 

3) conferences

 

hot = sec - it may be temporary, but could a conference receive any more love than the sec is receiving right now? as many as 8 teams are in the top-25 conversation, the title game thumping of osu is still fresh, it was a banner recruiting season, the #1 pick in nfl draft, the #1 heisman candidate. it's good to be the sec.

 

not = acc - this cannot be what the acc commish envisioned. he must have seen huge money for an annual mia/fsu conference title game, multiple national titles, and overtaking the #1 spot in college fball from the sec. in theory, the acc had everything: great football, great bball, and great academics. in practice though, mia and fsu each had 6  losses in 2006, wake forest beat a 5-loss gtech team to win the acc title, and vtech (initially an afterthought) has been premier program.

 

4) sec

 

hot = sec coaches - saban to bama. spurrier to scar. meyer to flor. tuberville, richt, fulmer. when your 7th best coach is fresh off back-to-back jan bowls and your 8th best is fresh off a conference title game appearance, you know your strong. no other conference has 8 fan bases legitimately expecting 8-win seasons from their teams.

 

not = sec qbs - this is probably the weakest, most unproven crop of sec qbs in years: eric ainge, casey dick, brandon cox, matt stafford, tim tebow, jp wilson, blake mitchell, michael henig, brent shaffer, matt flynn, the vandy guy, and andre woodson. it's so bad the kentucky qb is getting the most pre-season pub for 1st team all conference.

 

5) b10

 

hot = b10 expansion - the conversation definitely creates buzz. who'll get invited: texas, tennessee, kentucky? will notre dame join. a b10 title game. a new tv market for the b10 channel. maybe the new team will challenge mich and osu for the b10 title.

 

not = b10 expansion - the conversation goes flat almost immeditaely. the b10 commish backsteps. notre dame laughs at the invitation. names like texas and kentucky are quickly replaced by names like pitt and iowa st. cable companies aren't interested in the b10 channel.

 

 

 

I

 

1.  Hot:  ESPN's CFB coverage.  The Disney corporation might make bad movies, but they do CFB better than anyone.  Lee "Sunshine Scooter" is quietly carving out a cult-following with his antics and, like him or not, is certainly one of the more distinguished CFB personalities of our generation.  Herbstreit is widely regarded as one of the brighter and most connected CFB personalities in the media.  And the foursome of Gene W, Feldman, Forde, and Maisel are very well-written on ESPN.com.

 

Not:  CBS' CFB coverage:  NBC was the first CFB television dinosaur and CBS is not far behind.  Sticking to one brand, in this case the SEC, is a certain recipe for falling ratings.  But showcasing this brand with such...ahem...."distinguished" personaliites as studio host Tim Brando and commentator Verne Lundquist hardly reaches the younger audience that CFB caters.  Think local news in rural Kansas and that is what CBS coverage has evolved into.  The poorly written Dennis Dodd on Sportsline only deepens their outdated and sagging coverage.

 

2.  Hot:  Appealing OOC games:  Bama-FSU.  Miami-OU.  TAMU-Miami.  New and competitive OOC games are rare, but when two legit top 25 teams sign on for a home and home for the first time it creates an excitement that builds until toe meets leather.  They are great appetizers leading up to conference play.

 

Not:  Border Wars/Rivals:  The phrase "border war" was once a key element in OOC scheduling as a territorial battle for regional supremacy lay at wait.  No longer.  Yes, some still exist in-conference, but in generally those once anticipated contests have given way to scheduling in places (TX, CAL) in which a program can become more visible and ultimately recruit better. 

 

3.  Hot:  Michigan's Offense:  You would be hard pressed to find a more balanced and explosive offense across all units in the country.  UM could possibly boast an All-American at QB, RB, WR, and OL.  I cannot recall a sexier offense at UM in my lifetime.  Maybe the 99' outfit at UM would compare, but that is debatable.

 

Not:  Michigan's Defense:  Where do I start?  There best player is a 5th year LB who has largely underachieved at UM.  The secondary is laughable to the point where they will rely on a true freshman immediately and their "shutdown" CB got torched last year by OSU and USC.  The d-ends are a collection of talent waiting to stay healthy and reach their promise.  D-line is adequate at best anchored by good, but not great, Terrance Taylor.  Look at the offense and then think the opposite.

 

 

4.  Hot:  Karl Dorell, Jim Harbaugh and Dennis Erickson:  A new breed of coaches are starting to emerge in the PAC 10 waiting to take their turn and upending the USC dynasty.  Dorell just bought an extra 3 years with his win over cross-town rival USC last year while also building a very potent defense at UCLA.  Erickson brings in loads of experience and inherits a respectable and potentially lethal situation at ASU.  Harbaugh, while I think he is a jackass, has certainly got the Cardinal being talked about again and appears like an energizing hire for a proud yet dormant program.

 

Not:  Jeff Tedford, Mike Belotti, and Mike Stoops:  All three of these coaches have either disappointed or flattened out.  Their reputations have peaked, and in some cases collapsed, and we are beginning to understand that they won't go any higher (Tedford), their glory days are over (Belotti) or they were never cut out for the gig (Stoops).

 

5.  Hot:  The Big East Revival:  They might still be the 6th best BCS conference, but lets at least give the Big East some credit.  They've exceeded our expectations.  3-4 Big East teams could be ranked this year, they've done well in their bowl games, and have supplied some big-time talent both on the field (Brown, Slaton, Rice) and on the sidelines (Leavitt, Schiano, Rod). 

 

Not:  SEC Homerism:  Any smart CFB mind will surely give the SEC their justified credit.  However, there is a disturbing trend gaining steam from south.  Memo to all SEC fans:  If your team sucks or disappoints then deal with it.  Yet, too many SEC fans cling to their "conference" as a crutch when their team sucks.  If I see one more Alabama or TN fan bragging about FLA's win over OSU last year I am going to barf.  Because FLA beat OSU means nothing about your team.  Because you have to play LSU this year means nothing.  Go play them.  But when you lose and your team sucks again please spare me the rationalization that your team "plays in the toughest conference".  When this happens, and you again are forced to brag up the 4-5 good teams in your conference because your team sucked again, please look at your team first.  Anyone recall that Arkansas and Tennessee lost to B10 teams last bowl season? I barely do because I was thinking about Michigan football.  SEC fans need to adopt a similar approach.